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8/26/2026

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8/26/2026
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New Fed Chairman Warsh skips 'spot' rate forecast

06/17/2026
Economy
new fed chairman warsh skips spot rate forecast
new fed chairman warsh skips spot rate forecast

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh omitted his interest rate forecast from the central bank's quarterly forecasts released Wednesday,

departing from standard practice just three weeks after taking office.


The Fed's scatter plot included 18 forecasts, instead of the expected 19, from all members. The central bank did not specify who specifically withdrew.


Warsh is the only new member to the Fed's Monetary Policy Committee since the previous forecast round. He has previously criticized the central bank's forward guidance and quarterly forecasts.


The Fed has published a scatter plot four times a year since 2012 to show where individual members believe interest rates will move. The chart does not reveal which officials are responsible for each forecast.


Fed members acknowledge the limitations of this tool: it does not reflect how each member's economic forecasts influence their rate expectations. Nevertheless, the central bank believes the scatter plot helps investors and the public understand its position.


Warsh argued that forward guidance commits members to a specific rate stance without properly considering changing economic data.


The only previous instance of a Fed member refraining from providing forecasts involved former St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullar. He regularly provided short-term rate forecasts but did not provide estimates for the long-term neutral rate.


The Fed reported that 17 of its 19 members have provided forecasts for 2028.

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