Iran's attempt to exert pressure on global oil markets by restricting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is losing its effectiveness.
The United States is helping Gulf states continue oil supplies, the Wall Street Journal reports. Meanwhile, economic pressure on Tehran is mounting, as the conflict has now lasted six months.
The US naval blockade has prevented Iran from exporting oil through the Persian Gulf since July. Meanwhile, Washington has helped Gulf Arab states ensure significant transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iranian missile and drone attacks.
According to TankerTrackers.com, an average of approximately 5 million barrels of oil per day have passed through the strait over the past 28 days—almost without Iranian involvement. Another 2.5 million barrels per day were transported through ports in the Gulf of Oman, including Fujairah in the UAE.
These volumes represent more than 40% of the region's pre-war oil flows. Global oil prices remain below $100 per barrel, partly due to China tapping its domestic reserves and cutting imports.
All of this weakens Tehran's ability to use the Strait of Hormuz—which normally handles about one-fifth of global oil supplies—to create the global economic shock Iran had hoped for. The American blockade has also failed to force Iran to open the strait or change its overall policy.
Economic pressure within Iran is mounting. The rial is falling, inflation is rising, and gasoline shortages have become commonplace. President Masoud Pezeshkian stated that the country's trade turnover has fallen by 25-35%.
Other Gulf economies are also experiencing difficulties: supplies of liquefied natural gas, fertilizers, and other goods remain limited, especially to countries without alternative sea routes.
Iran continues to attack US tankers and military installations, but has refrained from large-scale strikes against Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The United States, for its part, is not targeting major Iranian cities or the country's current leadership.
Tehran faces a difficult choice: the initial assessment that the country can withstand approximately five months of severe economic pressure is exhausting itself. Iran must either return to negotiations or resort to military escalation to increase pressure on Washington.
The US midterm elections in November could complicate this calculation. Iranian leaders may see no point in easing restrictions and lowering energy prices before the vote, leaving oil markets vulnerable to a new escalation around the Strait of Hormuz.