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Bitcoin could rise to $840,000 over the next 5 years — River forecast
Сryptocurrency
On September 2, the financial firm River published an analytical model projecting that the price of Bitcoin could rise to a range of $250,000–$840,000 over the next 3–5 years,
provided institutional and retail investors continue to increase their Bitcoin allocations following recommendations from major Wall Street banks.
According to River, approximately 4% of the global population currently owns some amount of Bitcoin, though the majority hold only nominal sums and do not view the asset as a significant part of their portfolios. Institutional investors, who manage about 50% of the world's financial wealth, only began making notable investments in Bitcoin in 2024—following the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Meanwhile, River estimates that the aggregate share of Bitcoin in portfolios managed by U.S. investment advisors stands at just 0.008%.
The situation is gradually shifting: among the 30 largest Registered Investment Advisors (RIAs) in the U.S., 29 hold Bitcoin, although the median allocation remains small—around 0.10% of the portfolio. Most major banks are already developing their own Bitcoin products for clients, and leading financial institutions have begun recommending significant Bitcoin allocations to their customers.
River’s methodology relies on two variables: the volume of potential capital inflows into Bitcoin and the extent to which each dollar of inflow impacts the asset's market capitalization.
To estimate capital inflows, the firm draws on a Bitwise/VettaFi survey showing that the share of U.S. financial advisors investing client funds in cryptocurrencies rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025, with another 56% planning to start or considering doing so. River adopts a conservative scenario: within 3–5 years, 20–40% of investors will hold Bitcoin in their portfolios with an average allocation of 2–4%—figures consistent with the benchmarks set by major Wall Street banks. Based on an estimated global financial wealth of approximately $333 trillion, this implies a net capital inflow into Bitcoin ranging from $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion.
The second component of the model is the impact coefficient of capital inflows on the asset's market capitalization. River cites research by economists Xavier Gabaix and Ralph Koijen, who found that every dollar of net inflow into the US stock market increases its total capitalization by approximately $5. For Bitcoin, the company cites similar, albeit more modest, coefficients across various cycles—4.5 for 2015–2017, 3.3 for 2018–2021, and 3.1 for 2022–2025—and uses a conservative multiplier of three for its forecast.
With this multiplier, an inflow of $1.3–5.3 trillion translates into a rise in Bitcoin’s market capitalization to $5.5–17.5 trillion, corresponding to a price of approximately $250,000–840,000 per coin. Notably, according to River, the lower end of the range would require only the maintenance of current Bitcoin adoption rates, whereas the upper end assumes the realization of all the model's premises at their maximum potential. The company openly acknowledges that the model relies on simplified assumptions that may not hold true: capital inflows into Bitcoin could fall below or exceed the projected ranges, and financial markets as a whole are highly complex and susceptible to the influence of technological progress, geopolitical conflicts, and fiscal instability.