In the first days of June, refinery utilization fell below 4 million bpd, according to Bloomberg. Kasatkin Consulting calculated that the average weighted utilization rate was only 64-65%, compared to the normal 82-84%.

The collapse was caused by a wave of strikes on oil refining infrastructure. Reuters estimates that by the end of May, not a single major refinery in European Russia had escaped attack. The systematic strikes disrupted approximately 20-25% of the country's refining capacity, triggering fuel shortages in more than 50 regions. This resulted in a collapse in trading volumes on the exchange. According to the St. Petersburg Commodity and Raw Materials Exchange, sales of motor gasoline in June fell by 23.9% year-on-year to 610,360 tons, while diesel fuel sales plummeted by 35.4% to 1.07 million tons. As of July 1, unmet solvent demand stood at 62,040 tons of AI-92 and 38,520 tons of AI-95.

In response to the crisis, the government imposed a ban on gasoline exports for all market participants until July 31. At the same time, imports are being considered: according to Reuters sources, Indian refineries have already shipped at least 60,000 tons of gasoline to Russia, while Kazakhstan is ready to consider shipping approximately 50,000 tons of AI-92 in July and August, with total import potential potentially reaching 400,000 tons. At a meeting on the fuel market on June 28, President Vladimir Putin assured that "production of primary fuels should exceed June levels as early as July," citing maximum utilisation at major refineries, the increased capacity of medium- and small-sized plants, and the postponement of scheduled maintenance. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak added that "everything is being done to utilise additional capacity."

Kpler analysts are more cautious. They forecast that Russian refinery utilisation could increase to 4.4-5 million bpd in July-September, but even at the upper end of this range, the figure will remain 4-9% below 2024-2025 levels. By September, Kpler expects an increase of only 72,000 bpd compared to June. Experts estimate that refinery utilization could recover to 74-75% in July and exceed 80% in August. However, accumulated gasoline inventories will remain below comfortable levels until the end of summer, and market normalization is not expected until August.

NEFT Research analyst Dmitry Prokofiev warns:

"Shortages are always resolved by raising prices. It's a question of priorities: who gets it first, who gets it second, who gets it tenth, and who gets nothing at all."

On Thursday, September Brent futures were down 1.23% at the time of writing, trading around $70.70. Prices have fallen 6% over the week.