The bears still have the advantage, but a clear signal for corrective growth has appeared at local lows.
Bitcoin is trying to bounce back. On Wednesday, the coin recovered above the psychological $60,000 mark after one of the weakest first half-years in recent years (a decline of over 30%). Today, BTC continues to trade upwards – at the time of writing, the price has gained 2.4%, settling just above $60,000. Earlier in the trading session, the price briefly exceeded $61,000, but was unable to hold its gains and partially retreated.
Crypto investors are holding their breath ahead of the release of key US employment data.
Overall, the cryptocurrency market remains under significant pressure due to the prolonged outflow of funds from US ETFs and a general weakening of risk appetite. However, cautious optimism among traders was supported by comments from Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh that inflation risks have eased somewhat recently. The market remains caught between two forces:
Current Factors
Bullish:
* Hope for the Fed: Signs of a cooling US labor market could revive expectations of an imminent rate cut, which is always positive for risky assets
* Cautious Optimism: Kevin Warsh's comments about easing inflation risks gave markets a brief respite
* Local Rebound: Short-term technical momentum after bottoming
Bearish:
* ETF Outflows: Steady capital drawdown in US spot Bitcoin funds is undermining investor confidence
* Technical Downtrend: Global market structure remains bearish, and Bitcoin is still significantly below its all-time highs
How to act in these conditions? To understand whether the current rebound is real, it's necessary to delve into technical chart analysis.
Current picture: trend versus rebound
The bears still have the upper hand, but a clear signal for a corrective rally has emerged at local lows. The market structure is bearish, but the downward momentum is weakening. The key conflict right now is a global downtrend versus an attempt at a short-term rebound.
Key areas of interest:
* Long zone: $58,000–$59,500 (support and divergence are confirmed here)
* Short zone: $64,500–$65,850 (strong resistance – the downtrend, Fibre Channel, and SuperTrend are converging)
What are the indicators saying?
* Trend: down. The price is below the Ichimoku cloud and key moving averages.
* Support: $57,877 (double touch) – critically important. Its loss will intensify the collapse.
* Candlesticks: A bullish engulfing pattern has appeared on the chart near $60,043, signaling a possible short-term rebound.
* Momentum: Bearish momentum is weakening. The MACD has crossed bullishly, and a potential bullish divergence is forming in the RSI/MACD.
Technical analysis confirms that the market is in a "saw" in the middle of the $60,500–$64,000 range, where there is no clear long-term advantage for either side. Therefore, the current situation requires extreme caution.
Conclusion: When is it better to wait than to act?
The current market situation resembles the calm before the storm. Bitcoin is trapped in a narrow range between a bullish engulfing pattern and strong descending resistance. A cautious approach would be to wait for a confident breakout below $57,877 or a confident return above ~$64,000.