The trader's conviction is based on a combination of a classic technical signal and prevailing negative sentiment, which, in his view, creates ideal conditions for a rebound.

According to Rastani, many traders are hasty in predicting a bear market, relying solely on time patterns and the sharp pullback from the October high. However, Rastani is confident that price structure and market sentiment suggest otherwise.

The analyst studied every Bitcoin "death cross" (when the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day simple moving average) since 2011. He found that approximately 75% of these signals were near significant lows, with BTC typically posting positive returns in the following one to three months.

He added that something similar happened with the November 15 signal. Furthermore, the Fear and Greed Index has been in the extreme fear zone for several weeks, and social media comments are full of pessimism about a possible drop to $10,000. It all adds up.

Other analysts are more cautious in their bottoming-out statements, especially given the negative key blockchain metrics, such as the 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios.

Furthermore, crypto whales holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been reducing their positions for six weeks in a row, casting doubt on the possibility of a sustainable return to six-figure prices.