In his essay "Snow Forecast," Hayes speculated on the topic of macroeconomic conditions approaching a critical point, which would first trigger a drop in both the cryptocurrency and stock markets, and then lead to an injection of fresh capital into risky assets.

Source: Arthur Hayes' blog

Hayes does not believe that the government's activities after the shutdown will quickly restore dollar liquidity. According to the expert, clarity in the markets will appear only after Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos announces the official resumption of quantitative easing.

Until then, the permanent repo mechanism may have to quietly absorb the issuance of treasury bonds worth "tens of billions", providing temporary liquidity, but not the support that risk markets need.

Hayes believes that bitcoin's recent drop from $125,000 to $90,000, while stock indexes are still near record highs, indicates something is amiss. If stocks pull back by 10-20% and the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds rises to 5%, the situation could quickly escalate into a serious credit crisis.

It's no coincidence that over the weekend Hayes sold over $7.4 million worth of cryptocurrencies, including 1,480 ETH and several positions in major altcoins.

He also questioned the current ratings of cryptocurrencies due to the fact that "the third, fourth and fifth largest cryptocurrencies are derivatives for the US dollar, and a meaningless coin in a meaningless network and a centralized CZ computer."

The only altcoin that, in his opinion, can outperform competitors in the short term is Zcash (ZEC). It will be successful due to the decrease in privacy against the background of the development of artificial intelligence and increasing government control. Hayes is confident that cryptocurrencies based on the principle of zero disclosure should occupy the top positions in the ratings of cryptocurrencies.