What are "waves of hodlers"?

To begin with, let's remember what HODL is. This is a variation of the word "hold". In the crypto industry, this term became slang in 2013, when one of the users made a typo on the BitcoinTalk forum, writing "hodling" instead of "holding". "Hodler Waves" (from English "HODL Waves") is a graph on which all bitcoins in circulation are divided into "age groups". The latter show how long and exactly how many coins are being held by investors. Each "age group" is marked with its own color. Given their dynamic nature, the chart has been dubbed "Hodler waves" due to its obvious similarity to oscillatory movements.

The graph shows how the behavior of long-term, medium-term and short-term investors is changing. For example, if there is an increase in the number of bitcoin holders among the "younger groups", this means that the "older" ones are selling. This is usually observed when the market is close to its local or absolute highs. The fact is that long-term investors are usually more experienced, while newcomers are often motivated by a desire to make money as quickly as possible. As a result, the former lock in profits, while the latter become hostages of the lost profits syndrome (FOMO).

Calculation of "hodler waves"

To calculate the indicator, it is necessary to analyze the blockchain data. In other words, turn to on-chain analysis. In particular, unspent outputs (UTXO) are being investigated, after which all bitcoins are divided into "age groups".

There are twelve of them in total:

• day;

• from one day to a week;

• from one week to a month;

• from one month to three months;

• from three months to six months;

• from six months to a year;

• from one to two years;

• from two to three years;

• from three to five years;

• from five to seven years old;

• from seven to ten years;

• over ten years old.

Having figured out how and on the basis of what the indicator is built, let's move on to its practical application.

How to use "hodler waves"

Long-term investors are usually the driving force in the crypto market, so tracking their actions can often be extremely useful. This is where the "hodler waves" help. If there is a noticeable increase in new investors, and the old ones, on the contrary, are declining, then most likely the market is preparing for a reversal. As a result, HODL Waves can be used as a harbinger of corrective movements of BTC. Of course, it is better to rely not only on this indicator, but also on other technical and fundamental analysis tools to get as much confirmation as possible.

Graphical representation of the indicator

HODL Waves is a set of stripes of various colors. Since there are twelve "age" groups, the same number of shades are used. The "youngest group" is indicated in maroon at the bottom, and the "oldest" is purple at the top.         

What kind of information does this graph carry?

It turns out that the most bitcoins in circulation (17%) have been held for more than ten years, and the least holders in the youngest group are 24 hours. The largest reduction in hodlers since the beginning of 2025 has been observed in groups from two to three years (from 8.06% to 6.43%) and from five to seven years (from 6.19% to 5.39%). As a result, it is clear that the majority of long—term investors, and the minority of short-term speculators. The main percentage changes occur in the middle groups.

Creating "hodler waves"

The indicator was released in April 2018. Its creator was physicist and entrepreneur Dhruv Bransal, one of the co-founders of Unchained Capital, a company that provides various financial services related to bitcoin.

Conclusion

The "Hodler Waves" allows investors and traders around the world to visualize how long and to what extent BTC is being held. The indicator helps to analyze the behavior of long—term and short-term investors. With its help, users have the opportunity to predict a reversal in the market.

This material and the information in it do not constitute an individual or any other investment recommendation. The editorial board's opinion may not coincide with the opinions of analytical portals and experts.