Fundstrat Global Advisors is advising clients to prepare for a shakeout.
The research firm, known for its consistently bullish Bitcoin forecasts, believes the asset is ripe for price swings of 30% or more, continuing the string of sharp moves that have defined Bitcoin's trading history.
Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee set a long-term Bitcoin price target of $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2026. This figure implies a significant upside from the trading range the company outlined at the beginning of 2026, which extended from approximately $58,200 to $74,000.
Sean Farrell, head of digital asset strategy at Fundstrat, offered a more short-term perspective. His forecast included a possible pullback to the $60,000–$65,000 range during a period of market consolidation.
The company's broader thesis relies on a well-documented feature of Bitcoin's trading history: most of its annual gains tend to be concentrated in just 10 trading days. Miss these sessions, and annual returns can evaporate.
Lee also suggested that Bitcoin may be decoupling from its traditional four-year halving cycle.
A 30% move in either direction isn't a rounding error. With Bitcoin at $70,000, that's a $21,000 swing, enough to wipe out a leveraged position or generate life-changing returns, depending on which side of the trade you're on.