Trump's war against Iran has been going on for 6 months, and this week's surge in threats and diplomacy has highlighted the trap he finds himself in as he tries to extricate the US from the conflict.
Trump faces a choice between an emerging temporary deal being negotiated between Iran and Oman, which would give Tehran control of the Strait of Hormuz, something it lacked before the war, or following through on his threats of a sharp escalation and risk a more protracted crisis.
The first option, analysts say, would grant Iran its biggest concession since the US and Israeli attack on February 28 and would cement, at least for now, the Islamic Republic's control over a vital oil supply artery, something the Trump administration has vowed to prevent. The second option—likely a new wave of airstrikes—could pose a political risk for Trump ahead of the November midterm elections, while offering no greater chance of success than the previous bombings, which failed to bring Tehran to its knees.
Trump could instead maintain the uneasy status quo: continuing the blockade of Iranian ports and periodically retaliating against attacks on shipping. But even this approach would not allow him to exit the conflict without saving face.
"It's a menu of bad options, but Trump may have realized he can't allow this war to continue indefinitely," said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator. "Something has to give, and that could be recognition of the new Iranian reality in the Strait."
Responding to questions from Reuters, a US official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that any "temporary" shipping routes would be "unimpeded," with no oversight of transit by either side.
A Noose on Shipping
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio insisted that the strait, where Iran has held a near-fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies since the start of the war, must remain open as an international waterway, uncontrolled by Iran and free of duties and fees.
But Trump has previously contradicted some of Rubio's assertions about the war, and analysts believe he may do so again. With high gasoline prices in the US, low approval ratings, and a deeply unpopular war, the president's room for maneuver is increasingly limited, they note.
Opening the strait is considered a prerequisite for resuming negotiations between Iran and the US, which the Trump administration wants to focus on Iran's nuclear program—the main stated goal of the president's military campaign.
The question remains whether the US is willing to accept any agreement between Iran and Oman, which are located on opposite sides of the strait. According to a senior Iranian source and two regional officials, the proposed terms would give Tehran some control over ships entering the Gulf through the strait. Trump has claimed a deal to open the way is imminent, but Iranian officials say the details remain to be ironed out.
Even if the Iran-Oman pact is concluded and US-Iranian talks resume, experts are skeptical of the chances of a final peace agreement based on the memorandum signed in June but quickly disintegrated.
According to a White House official, the Trump administration is increasingly recognizing that the conflict, in some form, will likely continue by the time of the midterm elections. This creates additional political risks for Trump, who campaigned on promises to avoid foreign intervention. A US official told Reuters that Trump's decisions on Iran are not determined by "fickle opinion polls."
Main war goals not achieved
While Trump has regularly claimed victory, noting the deaths of numerous Iranian leaders and the deterioration of the country's military capabilities, most analysts agree that the president has stalled on many of his war goals. On Saturday, he said he had canceled plans for new large-scale attacks after his Middle Eastern partners asked him to give diplomacy another chance, but he also threatened a harsh response if the efforts failed. Some analysts speculated that Trump's retreat could also be prompted by concerns about the depletion of US missile stockpiles. However, Trump denies that the US is running low on ammunition.
Nevertheless, on Wednesday, Trump sent a new, contradictory message to Iran.
"I'd rather make a deal because I don't want to kill people," he said at a rally in Las Vegas. "But at some point, we're going to do it."
Iran has warned Washington's Gulf allies that any new US strikes will provoke retaliatory attacks on their energy infrastructure, five sources said.
Jonathan Panikoff, a former deputy US intelligence officer for the Middle East, said China, Russia, and North Korea are watching closely.
"They'll know what the US limits are for years to come," he noted.
Even some Iran hawks are advising caution.
"The Islamic Republic is trying to force President Trump into a no-win situation before November," Benham Ben Taleblu of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies wrote in X.
The Trump administration should avoid "rushing" and recognize "where the US has leverage and where it doesn't," he said.