The total addressable market for the global space economy could reach $1.3 trillion by 2040, driven by declining launch costs, growth in satellite services, and increased defense spending.
The estimate assumes average annual growth of approximately 7%. Assuming technological development remains on schedule, the market size could approach $2 trillion, but the forecast has been reduced by a third to account for potential delays and technical difficulties.
According to the Satellite Industry Association, the global space economy, in its narrower definition, will reach $429 billion in 2025, an increase of 3% compared to the previous year. Commercial satellites will account for $303 billion, accounting for 71% of the total. Ground equipment was the largest segment at $165.2 billion, followed by satellite services at $105 billion. Consumer applications, including satellite television, radio, and broadband internet, generated $80.2 billion in service revenue.
Decreasing launch costs should support the next stage of market expansion. The cost of launching a payload into low-Earth orbit could fall below $250 per kilogram by 2040, compared to the current $1,500–$2,000.
Decreasing launch costs should make satellite communications, Earth remote sensing, space logistics, and new applications more commercially attractive. The main increase in value is expected to come from regular services based on space technologies, rather than from launch activities themselves.
National security spending is another key growth driver. The proposed budget for the US Space Force will increase by 30% to $49.6 billion for fiscal year 2027; funds are allocated for missile warning, satellite defense, secure communications, and navigation.
Germany has committed to investing €35 billion in space assets by 2030, and NATO members plan to increase defense and security spending through 2035.
Long-term opportunities include private orbital stations, in-space manufacturing, lunar infrastructure, and orbital data centers. Many of these areas are not yet technically proven and require significant external funding.
Investment risks include launch accidents, project delays, unstable cash flow, orbital congestion, and regulatory uncertainty. Nevertheless, venture capital investment in space technology has already reached $11.6 billion across 430 deals between 2026 and early July, equaling the total for all of 2025.