"We continue to recommend selling any summer rebounds and forecast Brent to decline to $60-$65 per barrel by the end of the year," Citi analysts said.
Global energy markets are rapidly returning to normal: the resumption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz increases near-term supply, adding volumes for refiners who have already found alternatives.
This has resulted in a precipitous decline in Brent—in the second quarter, prices fell 30%, reversing all gains made during the conflict.
According to informed sources, some leading European powers are now acknowledging that ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz will have to pay fees to Iran and Oman.
The initial period "is expected to be turbulent as shipping routes normalize, insurance markets adapt, and residual logistics congestion is eliminated," analysts noted. "The return of orderly navigation patterns and rising traffic volumes suggest that commercial operators increasingly perceive the level of risk as manageable, rather than prohibitive."
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs stated that the global oil market will again swing toward oversupply as the effects of the war subside and traffic through Hormuz resumes. Morgan Stanley has twice lowered its oil forecasts in recent weeks, citing the risks of a glut.
On Friday, Brent was trading below $72 per barrel; the last time the futures fell below $60 was in January.