which could add further pressure to a market already weakened by fading institutional demand and macroeconomic factors, according to Bloomberg.

At 4:00 PM Singapore time on Friday, contracts with a notional value of approximately $10 billion will expire on Deribit, the largest crypto options exchange. Since most of these options are bullish bets and Bitcoin is falling, traders may shift to more defensive or bearish positions.

"This portfolio was built on a medium-term price rally and is now being priced against a fallen spot," noted Jean-David Péquino, Chief Commercial Officer at Deribit. "The consensus long call position has gone negative."

On Wednesday, Bitcoin fell below $60,000 to $59,023 in New York trading, hitting its lowest since October 2024. By the time of writing, the price was trading around $61,800 on Thursday.

The world's largest cryptocurrency has failed to recover from the October 10 crash and has lost more than 50% from its all-time high. It is currently trading below its 200-week moving average, a technical level that could signal a prolonged bear market.

Expiring options account for approximately 37% of open interest. The ratio of bearish puts to bullish calls is 0.83, indicating a predominance of bullish bets. Moreover, most calls are currently out-of-the-money—meaning they have no intrinsic value at current prices. Puts, on the other hand, are concentrated in the $60,000-$65,000 and $70,000-$75,000 ranges, increasing the likelihood of bearish bets winning.

"Expiration mechanics close positions, but don't dictate direction," emphasized Adam Haims, head of asset management at Tesseract Group.

According to him, the key issue is the market's bias toward calls amid low liquidity at the end of the quarter and in the summer.

"Thin order books and concentrated expirations mean that on Friday, the price will likely move sharply in the direction of the initial flow, and then revert to the mean as dealers unwind their hedges," he added.

Any sharp move near expiration is more likely to reflect positioning than a sustained trend change. A more important test, Haims believes, will be the first full week of July, when the quarterly portfolio is closed and leverage is reduced.

The backdrop is worsening beyond derivatives, too. According to Bloomberg, US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded nearly $3 billion in net outflows since the beginning of June. Strategy Inc., the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, is also under pressure, with investors concerned about its ability to meet financial obligations.

Macro factors are also weighing on the market: the prospect of rising interest rates is driving capital away from unyielding assets. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, noted that bearish sentiment among options traders has intensified over the long term, while the Fed's harsh rhetoric and high Treasury yields indicate that investors are pricing in a liquidity squeeze.

"In a liquidity squeeze, BTC typically fares poorly," he concluded.