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Three months later, the conflict with Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz have disrupted global oil, fuel, and LNG flows, causing a historic disruption to energy supplies worldwide.
According to LSEG, before the US and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, approximately 70 ships transited Hormuz daily, providing approximately a fifth of the world's oil, fuel, and LNG supplies. Since March 1, the average daily transit rate has fallen by 88% to less than 7, and in May, less than 6 ships per day, despite efforts to reach a peace agreement.
Export Collapse
According to Kpler, monthly oil exports from the Middle East have fallen from approximately 75 million tonnes to approximately 36 million tonnes since March. Total shipments for January-May amounted to approximately 260 million tons, compared to almost 360 million tons a year earlier.
To compensate for the shortfall, exporters in other regions increased supplies. Exports from the United States rose to a record high (+16% from January-May to 86 million tons), while total shipments from the Americas increased by 28 million tons to 236 million tons. However, capacity constraints in Africa and sanctions on Russian oil curbed growth in other regions. As a result, global oil shipments for January-May fell by 8% (-71 million tons) to approximately 800 million tons.
Shipments of petroleum products—gasoline, jet fuel, diesel, and naphtha—decreased by 8.7% (minus 31 million tons). Fuel exports from North and South America increased by 19%, partially offsetting the 32% decline in Middle Eastern exports. Freight at Record Highs
Benchmark rates for shipping oil from the Middle East to China soared from $130,000 to over $500,000 per day at the height of the bombing, according to LSEG. They have now fallen to around $390,000, but remain significantly above pre-crisis levels. Fuel tanker rates on many routes have more than doubled since the beginning of the year.
Some vessels have been rerouted from the congested Middle East to American exporters, but global importers are still paying significantly higher rates than before the war, exacerbating inflationary pressures.
Concerns could intensify if a peace deal is not reached soon: existing oil, fuel, and gas reserves are depleting and will need to be replenished, potentially at high prices and with increased freight rates.